On 16th February 2015 Mars One announced that they had whittled the candidate astronauts down to 100. Although asserting that their selection procedure would be rigorous, the selection from the 660 or so left in the second round was based on a 10 minute interview via Skype. Mars One have said that the interviews could be brief because this is all that is needed to determine which candidates are not suitable. Even a 10 minute interview would take 110 hours to get through 660 people. If we (say) allow say 10 minutes preparation and 10 minutes post interview, that’s 330 hours. At 12 hours a day and allowing the odd weekend off, it would have taken at least a month to carry out even this short interview process
The first thing to note is that 6 of the original 100 have already dropped out; they have been replaced.
One of the drop outs is a 24 year old British woman, Maggie Lieu, PhD in astronomy. She claimed that she had the background to understand what was involved in the Mars One undertaking and by January 2015 she seems to have had some doubts about the project. But in February 2015 she was quoted as wanting to be the first woman to give birth on Mars. By the middle of June she had withdrawn from the process. The Coventry Telegraph report her as saying that she 'didn’t want to be tied to a contract that didn’t suit me going forward’. So nothing to do with getting cold feet about the risk or technical feasabilty then. Her Twitter account currently has 2650 followers.
Was she someone who let her enthusiasm get the better of her until reality sank in? or just wanted her 15 minutes of fame? It appears she was part of an event on Mars in London in July (after she quit), and she is due to give a talk in November 2015 at the British Interplanetary Society meeting in London, on colonization of Mars. So more than 15 minutes then.
Then there is the assistant professor at Trinity College School of Education in Dublin, PhD in Physics and Astrophysics, Joseph Roche (30). In September 2014 he was making a public presentation promoting the Mars One project, and was very enthusiastic, claiming it would allow him to fulfil his lifetime ambition. He seems to have got cold feet just before being selected and by March 2015 had withdrawn. He has 2180 followers on Twitter. He is quoted as saying that the Mars One plan is ‘ambitious but naïve and unrealistic’. Naivety seems to be a common problem with those involved in Mars One.
Other British candidates still in the process are Clare Weedon (27) and Ryan McDonald (22) , who appeared together on prime UK morning TV in February 2015 to talk about Mars One. Despite appearing to have no scientific training, Clare is adamant that she will be carrying out ‘scientific research’, though she seemed a bit vague on what exactly she might be researching, other than the effect of low gravity on the human body. Neither of these two seem to show any cognizance of the extreme risk they would be taking, and reiterate the Mars One mantra that the technology and science required are already well known. Based on their performance on TV, neither seems to be ‘grounded’.
McDonald has a Masters degree in Physics from Oxford University – perhaps he should have studied engineering. In a recent video he has posted he is alongside a candidate from Australia (Dianne McGrath, 44, marketing in pharmaceutical industry and into ultra marathons). The antipodean says she is 'excited' about the Paragon study, which (she says) has validated that humans can exist on Mars with existing technology. Has she read it thoroughly? Does she have the understanding to make a judgement about it? She is another candidate who has made a lot of public appearances.
Laurel Kaye (21) has a degree in Physics. On her website she references the Paragon study, but refers to technology being available in a decade or two. She admits to having concerns, and says that she is counting on Mars One to thoroughly test all the technologies before people are sent. She expects the life support systems to have been functioning successfully on Mars years before sending the first colonists. Do not be surprised if she drops out fairly soon.
Josh Richards is an Australian candidate, and involved with the ‘Helena’ payload project. Helena is one of the payloads selected by Mars One to go on the first demonstration lander (basically a repeat of the NASA Phoenix mission) to carry out electrolysis of regolith derived water (produced by another module). The status of its development is not clear, but in any case, what would successful operation prove? There is no need for proof of principle of the electrolysis of water. Lockheed Martin are reported as saying that Mars One have not followed up their interest in the demonstration lander.
Oscar Mathews (33), from the US, is a pilot and aerospace engineer. In his rambling riposte to the MIT study (posted in August 2015) he claims that Mars One are continuing work with Paragon on the Mars One Space-suit Design Study. It’s not clear if this is correct.
Recent information on other candidates gives us further insights. Pieto Aliprandi believes that the Mars One colonists will be supplied with frozen food (good luck with that one). Adriana Marais says that she doesn’t believe in forming attachments; she is also reported as saying that the acquisition of knowledge ‘flies in the face of the second law of thermodynamics’. Sue Ann Pien says she found (New Age) religion after a near death experience.
A recent quick trawl through the details of the ‘100’ shows the following rough groups of existing expertise: • 5 with medical experience • 3 aerospace engineers • 8 with a background in physics • 10 with some other science background • 2 with a military background • 9 who work in IT • 18 who work in roles such as admin, teaching, general management • 2 architects • 6 from the arts and media • 36 who have no discernible skills
So very few engineers, compared to which the number of physicists is surprisingly high. There are perhaps 26 who appear to have some sort of background in science or technology. Draw your own conclusions, but it seems that the majority of the people selected could well lack the experience, knowledge or understanding to appreciate the size of the technical challenge posed by the Mars One program and the inherent risk they would be taking. With 10 years or so of training they could acquire the skills to operate the life support and other equipment, but being able to operate something is not the same as understanding it. Experience in industry shows that experienced plant operators can be highly skilled in those operations they have been trained in, but can lack the understanding of basic principles that is often essential in diagnosing problems.
For the younger people who have put themselves forward perhaps their decision reflects recent research on the development of the brain, and the relative inability of young adults to make rational decisions. Development of the key area of the brain involved in rational decision making, the frontal lobe, is now thought to continue into the early or mid twenties. Could explain a lot. As to the older people, who knows, but the whole process could prove fertile ground for a study of the psychology of the applicants.
In June 2012, Mars One released a promotional video fronted by Gerard ‘T Hooft, winner of the 1999 Nobel prize in Physics. In that video he says that his first reaction was that the project could not work, but on closer examination said that he could see that it could be achieved, and that the people involved had vision and imagination. Fast forward to February 2015 and he is reported as saying that he did not believe the mission could take off by 2024 as planned, and that it would take longer and be significantly more expensive. Nevertheless, he apparently still supports the project.
Mr ‘T Hooft is a theoretical physicist, who won the Nobel prize for his work on the quantum structure of 'electroweak interactions'. No, we don’t know what that means either. We can however make a simple observation; that physicists seem more prone to seeing the Mars One project as being credible than do engineers.
Ricky Arnold - selfie [Credit : NASA ]
M1201
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