The Mars One Project is a not-for-profit organization based in the Netherlands, founded by Bas Landorp and Arno Weilders in 2011. The project proposes to establish a colony on Mars, starting with a first manned landing in 2025, but offering a one way trip only. The rationale is that there is no current technology to land and return from Mars, and a one way trip simplifies the delivery system, reducing weight and leaving more capacity for cargo.
A ‘proof of concept’ landing is slated for launch in 2018, with the first unmanned landing in 2020 to deliver a rover to the surface of Mars. The rover would be used to find a suitable site for the manned station, and to prepare the area, including levelling ground for solar PV arrays (which will generate power). This is followed by further missions in 2023 to deliver living units, along with other equipment and supplies.
The first manned flight is intended for 2024, delivering the first crew of 4 to the then operational habitat in 2025, which will have been assembled by the rover. A further 4 crew will be sent every 2 years.
The Mars One project states that no new technology developments are required, with no major developments or inventions needed, and that each part of the proposed plan uses 'existing, validated and available technology.’ Whether one can accept this as a fair statement depends on the definition of ‘existing’, ‘validated’ and ‘available’.
But before looking at the status of the technology, there’s the basis of funding to consider. Mars One say they can do all this for US$6 billion, plus US$4 billion for each successive manned landing. Many sources believe that the $6 billion estimate is much too low.
Funding
The source of funding is to be a reality TV show – the astronaut training, the flight to Mars, and the life of the crew on Mars is going to be shown as a reality TV show, with an additional monies coming from merchandizing, sponsorship and donations. The example the project holds up as an illustration of the possible income is the Olympic Games (c. US$8 billion for the last games). The show will be produced in partnership with Endemol, the company that brought the Big Brother house to TV screens.
If the landings are successful the colony would require continual support – the first crews will be unable to manufacture complex spares, or build replacement systems from scratch - whatever the life and reliability of their equipment, it will wear out and will be subject to failures. A continuous source of funding is required unless the colonists are going to be left to die. What happens if the Mars One funding fails after the first people have been sent?
When asked about this during a recent interview, Lansdorp replied that the project had consulted media experts who were confident that the reality show would not fail, so there would be no failure of funding. He asserted that the funding would get easier after the first mission, including monies raised from intellectual property rights from the technologies that the project would develop. The latter source of funding may be questionable. The project seems to be expecting to commission hardware from vendors rather than develop any of their own technology; unless the project pays for research and development then they are unlikely to own much if any of the intellectual property rights.
So there is no assured funding, simply a presumption that the project will generate sufficient funds even though the project, if successful, would have to run indefinitely (or until the last crew member died on Mars).
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