Mars One Time Line
In their 2012 video the Mars One project time line was that in 2016 a communications satellite and supply units would be sent to Mars, with a rover following in 2018. In 2020 the living units and support rover would be sent, and the first crew would launch in September 2022, with the habitat fully operational at the time of launch. In April 2023 the first crew would land on Mars.
The time line has shifted. The timing as currently given on the Mars One website is as follows. 2020 - comms. satellite and demonstration mission launch (Phoenix copy) 2022 – Rover launched 2024 – Cargo missions launched 2025 – Outpost operational 2026 – First crew depart 2027 – First crew land 2028 – Crew two launch
There are some points to note from this. - despite the passage of three years, the level of definition given has not increased - the time line seems to be receding faster than the passage of time; the first manned landing has slipped some 4 years in 3 years - the technology for delivering and landing equipment is to go in 2022 (7 years time) - the outpost is only ‘operational’ for one year before the first crew arrive - the second crew launch only one year after the first crew arrive
Technology Development
Just to give some perspective on the size of the challenge, the furthest anyone has been from the Earth is 400,171 km (Apollo 13). The longest anyone has spent on another celestial body is some 75 hours spread over 3 days on the surface of the Moon, by Eugene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt ( Apollo 17).
In the time line published by Mars One there is no mention of any process to prove the long term operation of the life support systems on Mars before committing the first crew. There is no mention of any stage gates relating to technology development and system proving, and no room for any failure.
With the arguable exception of the communications satellite and Phoenix lander copy, none of the equipment required for the project (e.g. delivery and landing system, life support, rovers, habitat design, Mars space suits) currently exists, let alone is proven in operation.
The NASA Mars Phoenix lander launched two years after the preliminary design was approved. Phoenix was based on an existing lander built by Lockheed Martin for the cancelled Mars Surveyor 2001 mission.
The Mars Science Laboratory (Curiosity) was launched in 2011 some seven years after the project was initiated. The project cost was $2.5 billion – the original budget was $650 million.
The NASA 2020 rover mission for Mars was announced at the end of 2012. If it launches on schedule, that will be 7-8 years in the making. The cost is currently estimated at $1.9 billion. The mission includes a demonstration unit for the production of oxygen from Mars atmospheric CO2 but using solid oxide electrolysis for direct production (Mars Oxygen ISRU Experiment MOXIE). A key challenge for this unit, apart from coping with dust, will be the durability of the electrolysis cell materials.
Mars One expect to have a complex, manned program designed, built, tested and proven with demonstrated reliability, ready to go in 7-10 years time, at the total cost of $6 billion, including the cost of getting the first crew to and established on Mars.
In parallel with the life support system development, the Mars One project have to develop, design, test, and refine, the rover (or rovers) required to put the habitat system together, along with their delivery system to get all the equipment safely on to the surface of Mars. What might be a reasonable development time for the life support system?
Those elements of the life support system that do not directly interface with the Mars environment can be tested on Earth, as can the overall system, operating in a closed environment to test the required two years autonomous operation, and using simulated regolith and Mars air. The main caveat would be the difference in gravity. The requirements for on-going maintenance and repair would also have to be established. This would in all probability require multiple systems to be built and operated in parallel. At a guess it might take a couple of years or more to put together an initial system.
One of the issues with the Mars One Roadmap is that it seems to assume that nothing will ever go wrong, that there will be no set backs. It is inevitable that the life support system design would need to be modified and refined. It could well be necessary to develop alternative design solutions if the required reliability was not achieved. The system would also have to be demonstrated in an occupied habitat, over a period of years, to test and develop the recycling systems which human habitation would so critically depend on, and to test the system control functionality and design philosophy.
After say 5 years, you might have a partially proven system that seems to work on Earth. At this point it could be reasonable to put the regolith processing and Mars air systems on Mars, and leave them to operate for a couple of years. One road block for this would be the need to include a regolith collection and disposal. Allowing for the flight time, that is 8 years so far. If there prove to be operating problems on Mars, which is more than likely, then a second round of development would have to follow. Alternative in-situ processing unit (ISPU) designs could and probably should be developed in parallel. Some perhaps 12-15 years in, the project might have demonstration ISPU’s (and associated regolith handling systems) on Mars that have been running reliably. Based on that operating knowledge, and if Earth and possibly Earth orbit based operation has continued, there is likely to be some design modification to give the finalized system design. A complete life support system could then be put on Mars, say some 20 years in. If the system operated without a hitch for two years, then it might be reasonable to start to plan for a manned flight.
In 20 to 25 years it might be feasible to have got to the stage of launching the first crew to Mars.
The technical problems are solvable, but require time and testing, determination and lots of money, but even then would still present considerable risk in the context of the project proposed by Mars One. The psychological problems associated with the isolation, stress and a one way trip are likely to be far more intractable.
Lansdorp’s response to criticism of the feasibility or practicality of the Mars One proposal is to maintain that it is still evolving, and that the detailed design is still to be developed, and will continue to develop as more information becomes available. That may be fair enough, as far as it goes, but there is scant evidence that this is being driven from within Mars One. For example, it is now admitted that there may need to be two or even three different rovers in order to provide the functionality required (for capsule transport, habitat assembly, regolith handling). The impression is that the proposal only changes in response to external criticism, such as the MIT study.
During the ‘debate’ with MIT in August 2015 Lansdorp admitted that Mars One does not have the money to pay for the Lockheed Martin study for the demonstration lander and seems to be hoping for a white knight billionaire to invest. He also stated that they 'hope' to send a crew every 2 years, but may not if the finance is not in place or if there are equipment problems.
Mars One appears to have no significant funding, the basis of the project is debatable, the selection process is highly questionable, and there is no credible development plan. The timetable has already moved out, and will continue to do so. In August 2015 Lansdorp said that ‘funding’ would materialize by the end of the year, if not within 6 weeks (around the end of September). Lansdorp maintains that once funding is in place, all will be well. We shall see.
There may be money to be made from the Mars One scheme and that may enable the project to keep going for a while. It is extremely unlikely ever to put anyone on Mars.
Soyuz MS-06 spacecraft launches with Expedition 53 crew members 2017 [Credit NASA]
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